Premier League Odds & Betting Picks: Newcastle vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Preview (Sunday, Sept. 20)
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Things could get interesting Sunday when Newcastle United hosts Brighton & Hove Albion at St. James’ Park in Premier League action.
Newcastle comes into the contest fresh off a season-opening 2-0 victory against West Ham United.
Unfortunately for Brighton, it wasn’t as fortunate in its debut. The Seagulls entertained a Chelsea club primed for a big season on the European scene but suffered a 3-1 loss on the southern coast at Amex Stadium.
Both sides will look to scoop all three points with a positive result that’s beyond important to each club despite this being such an early point in the season.Newcastle
The Magpies looked great to kick off things off, riding second-half goals from Callum Wilson and Jeff Hendricks to secure a 2-0 road win.
Gaffer Steve Bruce had his troops raring to go on their debut, and grabbing a victory at home would huge against a Brighton side that has already shown it’s going to have a rough time scoring goals.
The Magpies could be one of those sneaky clubs and make some noise in northern England. It’s been a while since Newcastle has been in the mix of things late in the fixtures, but that could be a different story this season.
There’s not much data and statistical information this early in the season, but the Magpies sit on 1.2 expected goals and 1.1 expected goals against for a +0.1 expected goals differential. That equals a +0.18 xGDiff for 90 minutes.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
If you didn’t see the Seagulls’ match against Chelsea, it would have you thinking it was ugly, to say the least. However, the scoreline didn’t truly depict Brighton’s performance against a club that’s going to contend for league and European hardware.
The Seagulls actually had a very good run of play throughout the match and led the Blues in some key statistical areas.
Brighton outshot Chelsea, 13-10, in the opener and held an edge in possession. It also had one more corner kick. The obvious problem came in Chelsea’s defensive third, where the host failed to capitalize on all but one of its chances.
Much like Newcastle, there is minimal data on Brighton when it comes to these same statistical categories. However, the numbers are eerily similar to that of its foe. The Seagulls have 1.3 expected goals and 1.2 expected goals against, resulting in a +0.1 xGDiff and +0.17 xGDiff/90 minutes.Betting Analysis
Neither side is known to do a whole lot of scoring, and I see the defenses taking center stage in this meeting. That said, I’m backing the total staying under the number and playing it with confidence.
Picks: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-177)
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