Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Newcastle United vs. Arsenal Betting Preview (May 16)

On the heels of its Thursday defeat in the latest North London derby, Arsenal travels to Newcastle United on Monday seeking to re-establish a top-four position in the Premier League table.

The Gunners find themselves in fifth place following Tottenham’s victory against Burnley in Sunday’s action. With that win, Spurs have established a two-point lead over Arsenal, which has a game in hand.

In contrast, Newcastle has little motivation left this season. The Magpies sit 14th in the league, putting them five points behind Brighton & Hove Albion for a top-half position and nine points clear of the relegation zone.

This fixture will mark Newcastle’s third consecutive match against a top-six opponent, with the previous two affairs not going well.

Against Liverpool and Manchester City, manager Eddie Howe’s side was outscored, 6-0, on aggregate. The expected goals weren’t much better, with Newcastle losing both by a combined margin of 5.4-1.1 in the process.

Before those two games, though, Newcastle was playing quite well, albeit against weaker opposition. It won four consecutive contests against Wolves, Leicester City, Crystal Palace and Norwich City, keeping all four opponents under one expected goal.

Plus, Newcastle has proven reliable at home since Howe’s takeover. Dating back to Dec. 27 against Manchester United, Newcastle has only dropped all three points once at St. James’ Park.

Most of that success can be attributed to the Magpies’s defense, which has conceded 0.95 xGA/90 minutes in those nine outings, down from a season-long average of 1.49 xGA/90, per fbref.com. Its attack has also generated decent metrics, creating 1.21 xG/90 in those nine matches, up from a season-long average of 1.01 xG/90 minutes.

Thursday’s derby couldn’t have gone much worse for Arsenal, which saw defender Rob Holding red-carded and its defense concede 3.1 xG in the loss.

Plus, in just its last three contests, Arsenal’s attack has shown some concerning signs. It has generated less than one xG in two of those fixtures, with the lone exception coming after Leeds United had a man sent off.

However, the good news for Arsenal is that it has demonstrated reliability against bottom-half opposition. This season, manager Mikel Arteta’s side is 12-4-2 (W-L-D) against such foes, but has won 15 of 18 on xG overall.

Further, the Gunners have generated 1.83 xG per 90 minutes in those 18 games (per fbref.com), up from a season-long average of 1.56 xG/90 minutes. Plus, it has kept 10 of those 18 opponents under one expected goal.

Lastly, although it came against a wholly different Newcastle side, Arsenal dominated the reverse fixture. The Gunners earned a 2-0 victory (2.79-0.37 on xG) and won the big scoring chances battle by a 5-0 margin, per fotmob.com.

Combine the stakes of this match with the fact Tottenham gets Norwich City in its season finale and I have no interest backing Arsenal in a must-win spot.

That said, I do see some value in a Single Game Parlay. Both of teams are due for some negative regression overall, especially at their respective venues. Newcastle home fixtures this season have seen 51 total goals on 46.6 xG, while Arsenal road matches have seen 55 goals on 51 xG overall.

Adding things up, Arsenal fixtures have seen 101 goals on 100.3 xG overall. However, Newcastle matches have seen 101 on only 89.5 xG this season.

Based on those metrics, I believe we’ll see a low-scoring contest, especially considering Newcastle’s defensive success at the St. James’ Park. Plus, three of Newcastle’s last four home fixtures have stayed under 2.5 goals, while six in a row have featured three or fewer goals.

I don’t expect Arsenal do any worse than a draw, so I’m backing a Single Game Parlay pairing Arsenal via the Double Chance with the total staying under 3.5 goals at -125 odds as my top pick.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Arsenal via Double Chance & Total Under 3.5 Goals (-125 | Play to -135)